Group Identity and Political Preferences – GIPOP

In recent decades, adverse economic shocks and cultural resentment have created a fertile ground for populism, driving demand for protectionist policies and fueling hateful rhetoric targeting immigrants and minorities. Populism polarizes the political landscape along simplistic cleavages, often portraying society as divided into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups: for example, the "pure people" versus the "corrupt elites," or "true citizens" versus marginalized minorities. In addition to exhibiting simplistic worldviews, the nature of political conflict appears to have changed. While conflicts over cultural issues have intensified, conflicts over redistribution seem to have weakened. However, class-based politics has not disappeared from the political arena; it has taken on new forms. While demand for traditional redistribution policies (such as taxes and transfers) has declined, the demand for other forms of redistribution, specifically "predistribution" policies (such as protectionism, guaranteed jobs, and a higher minimum wage), has gained momentum.

The contribution of this project is threefold: 1) to develop theoretical models that investigate the precise mechanisms through which economic and cultural shocks give rise to populism, 2) to understand why and how populism simplifies cleavages and leads to less complex worldviews, and 3) to examine the growing significance of new dimensions of polarization, especially cultural issues, and the role of "predistribution" policies.

Building on recent political economy models (e.g., Shayo, 2009; Bonomi, Gennaioli, and Tabellini, 2021) and connecting with the social psychology literature (Tajfel and Turner, 1979; Roccas and Brewer, 2002), we will investigate how identity politics shapes political preferences.