MAnaging sustainable TRansitions in social-Ecological Systems – Matres

Most works from the literature use optimization approaches. However, some SESs may be poorly defined, with many uncertainties regarding their parameters and associated variables. Thus, instead of optimizing a state, it may be better to manage SESs in a range of acceptable states, which is the goal of viability theory. We will therefore mobilize approaches from viability theory. For this, we will base our analysis on recent works where different management sets are defined according to the properties of the controlled dynamic system. One of the originalities of the approach led by Matres lies in the definition of regimes from the sustainability of desirability and viability kernels. Previous works have considered a single desirability set and at most two control levels (one being the absence of action). Matres' main contribution is based on the addition of several desirability sets as well as different control levels and the algorithms necessary to solve these new control problems. Instead of analyzing these SES transitions from a state-based view, we will analyze transitions as a function of a property of interest, assumed to be a subset of the state space. This approach is clearly inspired by Holling’s (1973) view that defines ecological resilience as a function of the ability to recover a sustainable property of interest instead of recovering the initial state (engineering resilience). Therefore, we aim to develop a mathematical formalism of this transition-set-based approach. Then, we will analyze transition management through the prism of sustainability theory. We will aim to propose a mathematical framework to control regime transitions. The goal is to build on the topology of sustainability by assuming that different sets of actions of increasing cost and effectiveness are available. This allows us to define sustainability kernels that depend on the type of actions on the system and also to define transitions between these sustainability kernels. Finally, the last part will be dedicated to the algorithms for solving the associated problems and to the application of the Matres approaches to different case studies of increasing complexity. The objective is to develop a proof of concept to move from concepts to case studies to highlight the genericity of our approach: management of lake eutrophication; management of biowaste, and forest management in Doller. Nine workshops, three for each case study, will allow us to interact with stakeholders in order to collect data to help define different levels of desirability and different levels of control, while presenting them with the main results of the project.

Based on these research hypotheses, the objective of Matres is to move from the status of conceptual results to that of operational tools for the sustainable management of the transition within socio-ecological systems. More precisely, we seek to propose tools (based on mathematical theories, such as viability theory) that can be associated in the context of transition management. Such an approach has been very little addressed so far, to the authors' knowledge. Matres will build on a project previously funded by the ANR (VIRGO, closed in 2023) which provided the first building blocks for integrating the governance of socio-ecological systems into mathematical models. We naturally wish to go further by focusing on transitions in the search for operational tools for sustainable transition management.

The main perspectives of Matres concern the use of the framework for managing SES transitions, which is of primary interest for policy makers and society in general. We plan to provide a proof of concept that can serve as a basis for the future development of operational tools to support decision makers in future research projects. It is of primary importance to provide new tools to manage SES transitions not only for economic reasons but also for social issues. Therefore, providing operational tools to support this development can bring (in the long term) substantial benefits in economic and employment terms. Another perspective of Matres is the use of the developed computational tools (based on sustainability theory) for other SES as well as for other research projects.

In terms of valorization, we will mobilize the knowledge generated by this research for: research articles and conferences on the methods used and their specific application on case studies (management of lake eutrophication, biowaste and a forest). We will also ensure communication with the general public through interviews and communications in local and national media (newspapers as well as scientific websites). The main advances of Matres concern the development of a transition management framework, which is of primary interest to policy makers and society in general. We will disseminate our results among the project partners as well as stakeholders such as local organizations in charge of managing socio-ecological systems (in particular stakeholders in charge of these systems).

Transition management focuses on complex adaptive systems that involve fundamental nonlinear changes in cultures, structures and practices. Transition management represents a conceptual framework that encompasses many faces of transitions like the management of transitions in social-ecological systems (SES) as well as the transitions in governance. Transition management has not been analyzed and conceptualized through a modeling lens to the best knowledge of the authors. Our main research hypotheses is that mathematical tools may help the operationalization of transition management and that it may contribute to the debate on building up sustainable transition management. Based on these research hypotheses, the objective of this project is to move away from conceptual results to operational tools for policy-makers for the sustainable transition management of social-ecological systems. More specifically, we seek to propose operational tools (based on mathematical theory, such as viability theory) that can be nested in the transition management framework. Such approach has been seldom attempted yet to the knowledge of the authors. We will build on recent works developed that gave first insights for connecting governance to effective mathematical models. We naturally want to go further by adding an additional brick to this work: focusing on transitions for going further in the search of operational tools for sustainable transition management. This mono-team project will involve all the seven members of LISC (Laboratory of Engineering for Complex Systems).