Mitigation and Adaptation in Cultural Heritage Landscapes: Lessons from Transhumant Pastoral Systems for Managing Novel Climate Risks – Pasture Adaptation

This research analyzes the cultural landscapes of transhumant pastoralism as integrated socioecological systems (SES). Our first tasks establish a common analytical framework across the research sites. First, we will produce dynamic local SES models, leveraging the close researcher-farmer relationships already established. Dynamic models allow us to simulate interactions and feedbacks in the SES and generate hypotheses regarding future changes. We identify cross-site similarities and differences, which will help generate hypotheses about cultural landscape vulnerability and resilience. We will use the SHARP tool to conduct an initial vulnerability analysis of each transhumant system. While dynamic models illustrate how each system functions, SHARP will estimate the outcomes of that process. To understand historical adaptions, we will conduct archival and ethnographic research. We will use archival resources to develop case studies of local historical crises and adaptative responses. Case studies will include a detailed description of the crisis, documented and postulated effects of the crisis across the socioecological system, and documented responses. Researchers will also work with farmers and societal partners to document traditional ecological knowledge and assess knowledge transmission efforts. Because the adaptiveness of transhumant systems depends on knowledge of diverse ecological resources and farmer decision making, the ability to adapt to future threats requires transmitting this knowledge to new generations of farmers and updating it for new climate threats. The team will analyze how policy and governance regimes affect adaptation. We will reanalyze previously collected archival data to determine (a) how community adaptive capacity has been shaped by institutions and contextual factors (e.g., socioeconomic, ecological, and demographic characteristics) and (b) how community rules and norms have evolved in response to environmental and social shocks. Second, we will examine how policy diffusion and implementation is shaped by country-specific factors such as public awareness, agenda-setting, ideas for possible future policy solutions, and actors’ policy preferences. We will employ the Delphi method (Landeta 2006) to analyze surveys of 36 policy experts across the three countries. In consultation with farmers and other experts, we will use the dynamic models to develop place-based scenarios describing probable future conditions for each transhumant pastoral system. Each scenario will take the form of a storyline that begins with two to three likely changes and then describes the ripple effects of these changes across the system. The scenarios will be written and illustrated, then vetted by local experts. Final scenarios will then be shared in two to three participatory workshops in each field site, where farmers, farm advocates, and policymakers will be invited to evaluate and respond to the scenarios.

The impact of climate change on cultural heritage : Our research addresses several knowledge gaps identified in the literature by using communityengaged research to develop assessment and planning tools for cultural landscapes based on the. integrated analysis of social and ecological data. Importantly, we use downscaled climate projections with clearly defined timescales. The key challenge for analyzing threats to cultural landscapes – particularly those that are still actively engaged by communities today – is their complexity (Bu¨rgi et al. 2017; Schmitz and Herrero-Jáuregui 2021). Our approach embraces that complexity, integrating climatic, ethnographic, ecological, and policy data to illuminate threats to intangible cultural heritage and the importance of maintaining it.

Cultural heritage as a resource for climate mitigation and adaptation Our focus on the adaptive capacity of transhumant systems is novel because (a) we address system-level capacity as more than simply the sum of its constituent parts (Vallury et al. 2022), and (b) we identify the institutional characteristics that support this capacity, rather than simply looking to the past for templates for future action. To understand the adaptive capacity of cultural landscapes, we integrate social research on adaptive capacity and ecological research on resilience to identify which components of pastoral systems are essential to address the longterm stresses and acute shocks of climate change. Although adaptation research has been a “fragmented field” (Siders 2019), these two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation (Nelson et al. 2007). Importantly, our work draws on ongoing, funded projects to create data-rich understandings of cultural landscapes and develops a toolkit and guide to using this approach in areas with fewer resources, increasing the potential reach and utility.

Sustainable solutions for heritage : Our project refines a method for using socioecological scenarios with stakeholders to aid heritage preservation. These scenarios give users an understanding of the likely climatic and policy futures for their region and the potential impacts to cultural heritage, allowing them to steer preservation efforts more effectively. We also examine transmission of traditional ecological knowledge across generations and to newcomers in order to derive lessons on how TEK is best maintained and transmitted in these systems. Furthermore, our project creates a series of public outreach products (stories from professional journalists and films co-produced by professional filmmakers and farmers) that will spread awareness of the importance of cultural heritage for climate change mitigation and adaptation. These richly evocative pieces will help increase public support for cultural heritage protection. Finally, we will produce briefs for policymakers, as policy reforms on the horizon (e.g., the EU Farm to Fork program and European Green New Deal)

This research examines the cultural landscapes of transhumant pastoralism in France, Norway and Spain, to understand how this intangible cultural heritage (a) is threatened by climate change and other sociopolitical influences, (b) provides broader lessons regarding ecological knowledge and social organization for adaptive production systems, and (c) can be sustained through community action and policy. The research supports three goals (Fig. 1): 1. To develop an evidence-rich toolkit that helps communities and decision-makers assess the vulnerability and resilience of cultural landscapes. We will create conceptual models of each pastoral socioecological system (SES), which we will then enrich with place-specific data on climate and agroecological dynamics, livelihood vulnerability, historical adaptations and adaptive institutions, traditional ecological knowledge, and policy contexts. Documenting our process of developing the models will inform creation of a guide for cultural landscape assessment that can be used in other pastoral systems and, eventually, for other types of cultural landscapes. 2. To develop communication resources for the public and policy makers illustrating why threatened cultural heritage matters and how cultural heritage can contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Cultural heritage organizations and farmer advocacy organizations can tell compelling stories about how cultural landscapes anchor their communities, provide ecosystem services, and contribute to global cultural wealth,but they need communication tools and additional evidence to reach broader audiences more effectively. We will build capacity for this by translating our research into farmerled films, policy briefs, and a training for journalists. 3. To contribute to scientific literature on the vulnerability and resilience of cultural landscapes and culturally informed strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation. We will document the role of traditional knowledge and community institutions for historical adaptation and their potential future value, analyze methods for preserving and transmitting traditional ecological knowledge, analyze the impacts of policy on transhumant pastoral systems, produce insights on the vulnerability of SES, and apply novel methods for integrating social and ecological research.

2025 – Meredith Welch-Devine, Brian J. Burke, Jennifer Jo Thompson, Beñat Eppherre, Monique Eppherre, Pierre Jaragoyhen, Simon Maraud, Hélène Rolland and Anne Sourdril, “Layering” co-production for authentic and respectful community engagement, Society & Natural Resources (in press).

2025 – Meredith Welch-Devine, Brian Burke, Jennifer Thompson, Anne Sourdril, Designing research collaboratively: Lessons from socioenvironmental systems research in the French Basque Country, Human Organization, Human Organization 84(2):218-233.

Marty Edwige et Maraud Simon, The future of the Basque pastoral system: a Lunch and Learn, 29 octobre 2025. University of Georgia, Athens, communication.

Raine Cox, Sechindra Vallury, Meredith Welch-Devine, Brian Burke, Jennifer Jo Thompson (2025). Adapting Heritage Systems: Exploring Policy and Cultural Resilience in European Transhumant Pastoralism. Food Cultures and Social Justice. Joint Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Food and Society and Agriculture, Food, and Human Values Society. Corvallis

Thomas Mote (2025). Pasture Adapt. Belmont Forum Climate and Cultural Heritage JPI Mid-term Forum – Climate Resilience Cluster. virtual.

Thomas Mote (2025). Pasture Adapt: Mitigation and adaptation in cultural heritage landscapes: Lessons from transhumant pastoral systems for managing novel climate risks. Belmont Forum Climate and Cultural Heritage JPI Midterm Lightning Talks. virtual.

Julia Tootle (2024). Recent-Past and Paleo Drought in the French Basque Country. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. Washington DC.

Meredith Welch-Devine (2024). Transdisciplinary Collaboration to Understand the Past and Imagine New Futures: Pastoralism, Cultural Heritage, and Climate Change in the Basque Country. Rachel Carson Center Colloquium. Munich, Germany.

Meredith Welch-Devine (2024). Transdisciplinary Collaboration to Understand the Past and Imagine New Futures: Pastoralism, Cultural Heritage, and Climate Change in the Basque Country. Integrative PhD colloquium, University of Georgia. Athens, GA.