Net Zero Energy Mix pathways for a Climate Changing Western Africa – NZEMIX

According to the last IPCC report, the global energy system remains the largest source of CO2 emissions. Addressing Climate Change (CC) requires for the energy sector to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In West Africa (WA), this challenge also meets the issue of energy access for a majority of the populations (SDG 7 & 12). Net zero strategies will necessarily be part of a sustainable energy development that looks for balancing the population need for energy and the corresponding negative impacts on local and global social-ecosystems (SDG 13). Energy system modelling should help decision makers to determine potential pathways for the net zero energy mix in the region, from strategy (decentralization vs. centralization) to the type of low-carbon energy resources to be implemented. At the moment, energy models in WA need 1) better contextualization regarding energy access, in particular by taking into account decentralized options, 2) enhanced integration across the multiple dimensions of the energy system equilibrium between energy supply and energy demand at the national scale, and 3) taking into consideration the net zero agenda through innovative system configurations, economic futures and mitigation options. In order to tackle this challenge, NZEMIX will especially focus on the interconnectedness between existing detailed models of energy supply (renewable, non-renewable), end-using sectors (agriculture, transport, residential, etc.) and social-environmental drivers (CC, population growth, urbanization) at sub-national and national scale. First, through interdisciplinary literature review and detailed analysis of pre-selected models, it will determine a set of modelling tools that could be interconnected between them (WP1). An Open-Source modelling framework will then be developed based on relevant models belonging to this set, combining a network of sectoral models and a social-environmental forcing framework, the latter being designed to take into consideration the impact of the evolution of critical social and environmental parameters over time on the system (WP2). The models of this framework will be incrementally interconnected through soft-linking or hard-linking, in order to facilitate contextualization, provide knowledge about specific interactions, and ensure progressive handling of increasing complexity and model internal assumptions. Those models will then be contextualized with respect to own WA issues, in particular the dichotomy between centralized and decentralized energy supply. This modelling framework will eventually be applied to co-construct net-zero scenarios in WA countries under study (Senegal, Niger, Côte d'Ivoire) in order to assess strategies and options towards a net-zero energy system (WP3). Ultimately, multidimensional knowledge will be co-constructed for the whole region through aggregation of these sub-national and national scenarios elaborated in different social-environmental contexts. This knowledge will be adapted for dissemination towards policy makers (policy briefs) and towards local populations through interactive communication supports (online resource, TV & radio program, short movies, etc.), in particular to understand how their own aspirations and energy needs may match the future shift of the energy system towards more sustainability.