CE56 - Interfaces : mathématiques, sciences du numérique - sciences du système Terre et de l’environnement

Next generation of seismic ground motion models for Europe – NGS-EU

Submission summary

Seismic risk assessment is a probabilistic estimate of exceeding a certain level of social and economic consequences at a site hosting infrastructure, due to nearby earthquakes. The consequences are quantified estimates of loss of life and/or economic losses. Such assessments are of immense importance to decision making, insurance policies, and design of cities resilient to seismic catastrophes. Therefore, these assessments need to be reliable with low uncertainties. However, the largest contribution to risk uncertainties is the uncertainty in predicted ground-motion (e.g. horizontal ground acceleration) at a site. Persistent efforts are required to reduce these uncertainties with adoption of cutting edge statistical methods and modelling complex earthquake physics into Ground-Motion Models (GMMs).
GMMs are empirical prediction models derived from large datasets of recorded ground-motion data. However, most of these empirical datasets do not contain enough data corresponding to large earthquakes close to the site, and data from sedimentary basins - which are often the most densely populated (e.g. national capitals in EU) and host critical nuclear power facilities (e.g. in France). Moreover, ground-motion attenuation depends strongly on crustal parameters, where the earthquakes originate and seismic waves propagate to reach the surface. But the extensive knowledge in earthquake rupture, wave attenuation, and site-response physics (Earth sciences) and advances in statistical methods (Mathematics) are yet to be adopted in the engineering application oriented GMMs. Therefore, this project will integrate empirical and physics-based numerical simulation datasets, apply machine learning techniques in sensitivity analyses, discover optimal physical parameters, and model complex physics into GMMs. In essence, this cross disciplinary project aims to strengthen the interface between these complimentary expertises and develop next generation of GMMs for Europe.

Project coordination

Sreeram Reddy Kotha (Institut des Sciences de la Terre)

The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.

Partner

ISTERRE Institut des Sciences de la Terre

Help of the ANR 199,899 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project: February 2023 - 48 Months

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