Tipping Points for Tropical Winds – TippingWinds

A key scientific question in the public debate about global warming is the existence of "tipping points", i.e. bifurcations in the dynamics of the climate sytem, potentially leading to abrupt climate change, such as those recorded in paleoclimate proxies. While the atmosphere is a natural candidate for fast climate switches, it remains unknown whether it supports such tipping points. Indeed, many aspects of the nonlinear interplay between jets, waves and turbulence leading to their complex dynamics remain unexplored. The goal of this project is to investigate the possibility of bifurcations due to nonlinear feedbacks in the atmospheric circulation in the tropical region. We will study how resonant excitation of equatorial waves can lead to the appearance of a stable eastward equatorial jet, using geophysical fluid dynamics, nonlinear dynamics, and simulations with increasingly complex General Circulation Models.