High-resolution Paleoclimate Archives & Social vulnerability for the last Millennium in Cyprus (Near-East) – HIGH-PASM

This project investigates the interaction between climate change and social responses since the medieval period in a poorly studied region, specifically the island of Cyprus, and uses new indicators for both climate and social vulnerability. On one hand, natural archives such as speleothems provide quantitative hydrological and temperature data to complete existing dendrochronology data as well as compiled weather data for the last century. On the other hand, compiled public health archives of mortality, diseases, famine breakouts with past rural/urban landscape records for the last 900 years offer new indicators to analyze social responses to changes in climatic/environmental backgrounds.

From available historical data and paleoclimatic archives in Cyprus, a detailed reconstruction of each component of factors (climatic/environmental, demographic, political context, land use, health) will be determined for the last 900 years. This assessment will be used to construct scenarios of social vulnerability and disease breakouts. The modelled scenarios will be verified using an independent agent-based model approach. Therefore, three research themes organise the project under three work packages

WP1 : Landscape and climate of the Near-East and Cyprus – reconstruction palaeoquantitative temperature and rainfall estimation and modelling Climate maps.

WP2: Social indicators of sanitary conditions in Cyprus: vulnerability, insularity vs regional connections

WP3: Modeling the pathogenesis’ evolution under various conditions and constraints

Results are under construction and the first results are to be published during the mid-term meeting planned in May 2023

In progress

In progress. first results are to be published in 2023

Understanding how past societies responded to extreme climatic changes is crucial for gaining insight into current and future environmental challenges, especially environmental stress and sanitary conditions in the context of the present climate change impacting the Near-East. Evidence from paleoclimate data clearly indicates that climatic fluctuations in this area over the past millennium have not been homogeneous. Instead, a high degree of variability over time and across space is pointed out by hydrological changes in particular steep topography environments. These fluctuations were challenging for societies since precipitation variability can impact agriculture, food production but also sanitary conditions and the spread of disease. This project investigates the interaction between climate change and social responses since the medieval period in the poorly studied Near-East region, specifically on the island of Cyprus, and uses novel indicators for both climate and social vulnerability. On one hand, natural archives such as speleothems provide high-resolution and quantitative hydrological and temperature data to complement existing dendrochronology data as well as compiled weather data for the last century. Compilation of paleoclimate data will be transformed into climate maps of the island. On the other hand, the compiled public health archives of mortality and diseases together with past landscape maps offer new indicators to analyze social responses.