Co-construction of adaptation scenarios for managing coastal risks in the context of climate change in coastal communities in France and Quebec – ARICO

Our fundamental hypothesis was that, in order to achieve our objective, we needed to investigate three interlocking levels of the problem: (1) understanding the systemic vulnerability of these territories, through knowledge of both natural and social dynamics, (2) analyzing public policies, stakeholder dynamics and the use of management tools in the two territories (France and Quebec), (3) investigating the adaptive capacities of coastal communities in the two workshop territories (Communauté de Communes du Pays Bigouden Sud in France and Municipalité Régionale de Comté de Matane in Quebec). Progress on these three research questions fed into the (4) co-construction of adaptation scenarios (figure 1). The choice of methods and tools deployed (development of vulnerability indicators, timelines, surveys on the psycho-social aspects of adaptation, open forums, world cafés, comparative analysis of public policies, serious games, co-construction of adaptation scenarios, etc.) was made so that they could be transferred to other sites.

The results obtained provide advances in several interlocking approaches, helping to project territories towards a sustainable future: (1) Knowledge of the systemic vulnerability of territories: indicators have been “improved” by drawing on experience in France and Quebec; they concern hazards, stakes, as well as risk management and adaptation measures. They were tested on the two workshop sites (Pays Bigouden Sud and Matanie). In addition, chronological friezes retrace the history of occupation of these territories and the responses that have been made in response to the damage caused by hazards. (2) Comparative analysis of public policies in France and Quebec: a number of similarities in modes of governance have been identified, as well as some particularities. These include compensation systems (no coverage for second homes in Quebec, national solidarity principle in France, but only for flooding, etc.), the effectiveness of residential relocation in Quebec (but not yet in France), the more central (but diminishing) role of the State in France, and concertation (mainly developed between the State and local authorities in France, with greater involvement of residents and civil society in Quebec). (3) Understanding the psychosocial aspects of adaptation: surveys of local residents and open forums organized in both areas revealed a very strong attachment to the territory, coupled with a strong sense of identity linked to the sea, a tendency to put coastal risks, although known, “at arm's length” from major concerns, uncertainty about climate change and a desire to get involved for some. Moreover, the collaborative work between researchers and managers (local authorities, including elected representatives, and state structures) in both fields was part of territorial adaptation dynamics that were already well advanced in France and more incipient in Quebec. (4) Lastly, the exercise of co-constructing adaptation scenarios was nurtured and refined over the course of the project. A serious French game designed to help plan and adapt coastal territories was adapted to Quebec. It was used as a lever for concertation and encouraged exchanges with local elected officials, civil society players and students. Another serious game involving local residents was developed and played in the Pays Bigouden during the “Si, la mer monte!” festival, where Quebec was the guest country. This is a decision-making role-playing game designed to project the territory into a desirable and sustainable future, according to different scenarios. It aroused great interest and lively discussion among participants. It is currently being adapted in Quebec as part of another research program.

In addition to the project deliverables and the adaptation support tools developed, the ARICO team is actively involved, and will continue to be over the next few years, in two long-term adaptation projects for coastal areas led by the local authorities of Treffiagat (France) and Matane (Quebec). These projects mobilize research results and involve reflection on adaptation scenarios. Concrete residential relocation projects, which are still very rare, are supported by local elected representatives in the Bigouden region, and studied by certain public players in Matane. Although it is difficult to estimate ARICO's precise contribution to these major advances, it is clearly recognized by the institutional players in these areas.
Finally, the ARICO project has initiated a new project that has just been selected by the CNRS: the IRP (international research project) ADAPATCOTE, which will continue Franco-Quebec exchanges on this subject between researchers, students and local authorities for at least 5 years.

6 scientific articles published by September 9, 2024, with several others in progress
1 book chapter submitted
1 article published in a professional planning journal.

1) Weissenberger, S., Marie, G., Meur-Ferec, C., Guyon, L., Delannoy, J. (submitted) Franco-Quebec collaboration in the maritime sector -The Institut France Québec Maritime and the ARICO coastal risk project. Proceedings of the Transatlantic symposium on sustainable development: North American and
European perspectives on sustainability in higher education, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Springer.

2) Lesouef B., Henaff A., Marie G. (2023). The relevance of natural hazard vulnerability indices for managers: a mixed literature review approach. Vertigo, 203(3)

3) Guyon L., Meur-Ferec C., Marie G., Plante S., Verdun J., David L., Delannoy J. (2023) Analyse comparée et appliquée à un territoire fictif des politiques publiques de gestion des risques côtiers en France et au Québec. Vertigo, vol. 23 n°2

4) Joly-Naud S., Marie G. (2023) Le patrimoine côtier du Québec maritime: cartographie des principaux sites et exposition aux aléas côtiers. L'Estuaire, 81, 92-106.

5) Delannoy, J., Marie G., Meur-Ferec C. (2021) Influence of coastal hazard compensation systems on residential choices in France and Quebec. Bulletin de l'Association de géographes français. 3/4, pp. 498-51, journals.openedition.org/bagf/8564.

6) Laroche M. and Plante S. (2022) Le réseau d'acteurs et ses représentations sociales: Méthode d'évaluation de la gestion des urgences et des risques à Saint-André de Kamouraska. Canadian Journal of Emergency Management, Vol 2 No 1 (2022), p. 110-148.

7) Meur-Ferec C, Lummert C., Rabuteau Y. (2022). Les élus locaux face aux nouveaux défis de la gestion des risques côtiers d'érosion et submersion en france: le cas de Plonévez-les-Flots. La Gazette des Communes. www.lagazettedescommunes.com/telechargements/2022/04/les-elus-locaux-face-aux-nouveaux-defis-de-la-gestion-des-risques-cotiers-derosion-et-submersion-en-france-le-cas-de-plonevez-les-flots.pdf

This Franco-Quebecois research project focuses on the co-construction of adaptation scenarios to coastal risks between researchers and society stakeholders. We know that, in a context of climate change and of concentration of human and built stakes on the coasts, the risks of coastal erosion and sea flooding are constantly increasing, both on the French and Quebec coasts. In addition, the difficulties of integrated coastal zone management and the multiplicity of positions of different and numerous stakeholders (citizens, elected officials, public administrations, local and regional organizations and other stakeholders) complicate the management of these risks, on a complex territory, at the interface between land and sea, but also between the river and its catchment area. Projecting these vulnerable spaces in a sustainable future becomes a challenge to which interdisciplinary and partnership research between researchers, coastal risk managers and inhabitants will provide crucial insights.

The aim of the project is to better understand and promote the adaptive capacities of populations and coastal territories subject to coastal risks by co-constructing, with the stakeholders, scenarios for the adaptation of these coastal territories. Our fundamental hypothesis is that to achieve this, it is necessary to investigate three nested levels of the problem: (1) understand the systemic vulnerability of these maritime territories, through knowledge of both natural and societal dynamics, (2) analyze public policies, stakeholder dynamics and the use of management tools in the two territories (France and Quebec), (3) characterize and analyze the adaptation and resilience capacities of coastal communities in the two test areas (group of municipalities of the Pays Bigouden, Brittany, France and group of municipalities of La Mitis, Québec). These three angles of approach complement each other and allow an integrated approach to analysis, in an interdisciplinary perspective. Throughout the project, progress on these three research questions will feed into the (4) co-construction with stakeholders (managers and inhabitants) of socio-ecological-economic scenarios for the adaptation of coastal territories and communities.The expected results are multiple. In addition to the development of these adaptation scenarios, at different time horizons, on the the test areas, several tools will be realized (vulnerability indicators, digital data platforms, timelines and story maps, serious games…) so that they can be transferred to other sites.

One of the original features of the project is to be based on a triple exchange, (i) between two territories, France and Quebec, (ii) between two disciplinary sectors, natural sciences and human and social sciences, (iii) and between several fields of knowledge, that of researchers and those of stakeholders (management professionals and inhabitants). We will work in mixed Franco-Quebec and researcher-managers teams. The systemic approach and the enrichment provided by cross-border international experiences will make it possible to respond to the strong societal demand for sustainable management of these spaces that have very special natural and social dynamics.