Spread of epidemic processes on dynamical networks of animal movements with application to cattle in France – CADENCE

The spread and persistence of infectious diseases in livestock have adverse consequences for public health and animal health and welfare. Animal movements contribute to the (re-)introduction of infections in disease-free herds and regions. Our project addresses scientific issues to provide, through an integrative approach, knowledge and novel methodological tools to more effectively control infectious cattle diseases preferentially spreading through trade. We will analyse the dynamical networks representing datasets of cattle trade movements in France over several years and will provide relevant statistical and mechanistic models describing and predicting their temporal evolution. We will build and analyse multi-scale models coupling, at a regional scale, within-herd infection dynamics, mainly through the network of cattle commercial exchanges, and integrating control interventions and behaviours of farmers with respect to animal trade and implementation of control measures. This approach will be applied to the study of the effectiveness of control measures against four major and contrasted cattle infectious diseases (foot-and-mouth disease, bovine tuberculosis, bovine viral diarrhoea and paratuberculosis). We will thus attempt to build a general view of cattle infections spreading at large scale through animal trade and to assess the effectiveness of control strategies, for an integrated and sustainable management of animal health.