Dynamics of Green Growth in European and Chinese Cities (DRAGON) – DRAGON

A systemic approach has been developed to gather data on cities and model the consequence, on land consumption and greenhouse gases emissions, of policies they may implement. We first collected a novel data set of spatialized city characteristics for 192 cities worldwide. This dataset was built using long and complex web-scrapping procedures. The cities are located on the 5 continents, and differ by their size, level of development, histories and climate. They represent together a third of all the people living in cities of more than 300 000 inhabitants. We then designed a mathematical framework to systematically calibrate, on each city, a land-use transport interaction model, NEDUM, and to assess statistically the robustness of the calibration coefficients. The models were finally used to downscale, at city scale, global techno- economic scenarios similar to those used in the SSP database, hence analyzing the potential impacts of several transport and land-use policies in each city in prospective scenarios coherent with the global scenarios used in IPCC reports.

Cities are key players in global environmental issues. However, each city is different, and assessing the potential role of the multiple policies that they can implement is a difficult task. In the project, we originally aimed to simulate and compare the potential consequences of several policies on urban transport emissions in 6 Chinese cities. However, the approach that we developped proved to be more powerful than anticipated, and, thanks to the progressive availability of data during the lifetime of the project, we managed to systematically simulate the impacts of the policies in about 200 cities worldwide, taking into account their fine geographical, social and economic characteristics. These cities are situated on all continents, and gather about a third of the population of all cities of more than 300 000 inhabitants.

This fundamental research project was coordinated by CIRED, and is part of a larger international project involving the University of East Anglia, UK, the University of Bristol, UK, Tsinghua University, China, China’s Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,
Beijing Institute of Technology, China, and the Wuppertal Institut fuer Klima, Germany. It started in 01/11/2014 and lasted until 01/09/2020, following several extensions due to the covid pandemics and initial difficulties in the hiring of researchers. It benefited from ANR funding by 365 000 € out of a global cost of about 1 million euros.

We created a unique database of spatially explicit data on rents, real estate prices, population densities and transport times (with different transport modes) in about 200 cities worldwide. Each city is divided in 1000 to 15 000 neighborhoods of 1km2, and data were collected for each neighborhood of each city of our sample.
We also developed a modified version of a land-use transport interaction model, NEDUM, which was then calibrated on each of the cities of the database, enabling to derive prospective scenarios on the evolution of different characteristics of the cities, such as the location of new buildings, changes in real estate prices etc.
10 publications, including 6 peer-reviewed research articles in major scientific journals (2 other articles are currently under review), and more than 17 presentations to academic conferences resulted from this research project.

We are an international consortium formed by six leading research institutes in the field of green economy. Our GOAL is to develop robust evidence on green growth in both EU and Chinese cities and to draw lessons to facilitate a transition towards sustainable development in EU and Chinese cities. Our team has brought strong and multi-disciplinary expertise into this project from aspects of urban development, environmental economics, economy-energy-environmental modelling,carbon accounting and policy analysis for technology transfers.
Green growth means shifting to a development model where environmental protection and economic growth complement each other, rather than being contradictory. Generating 85% of Europe's GDP, 80% of energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions, cities have a central role to play in this process. European cities are striving for green growth. They are adapting local regulation and raising citizen awareness. Recently, the EU has launched the Europe 2020 strategy that sets out sustainable growth as one of its priorities, alongside smart and inclusive growth: 'making our production more resource efficient while boosting our competitiveness' . On the other hand, China will play a pivotal role in the fight against climate
change given due to its immense size and need to develop. Shifting Chinese cities to a green growth path is a critical part of the fight. Chinese cities home 46% of the population and contribute 75% of the Chinese national economy and nearly 85% of CO2 emissions. The nexus between urban evolution and emission mitigation is the key in China's green growth.
While the green-growth debate is becoming more prominent at the international level, understanding how to operationalise green-growth strategies is still lacking at more local levels. The key challenges remain:
Challenge 1: What are the dynamics of emission trends in Chinese cities at different urbanisation and industrialisation stages? Energy and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission inventories are usually built at national level. But no such international framework exists requiring measurements of city emissions or providing detailed methodological guidance for conducting an urban emissions inventory. We will construct city level emission inventories.
Challenge 2: What factors are driving emission growth in cities? Quantification of emission driving forces has been extensively studies at the national level. Few studies have found at the city level. Understanding the key factors in driving the emission growth, one can target the problem more specific to reduce emissions in cities.
Challenge 3: What are the sources of green growth in cities and how can we support green growth? Green growth can open up new sources of growth through increasing resource efficiencies and economic productivities, supporting technology innovations, creation of new market, boosting business confidence in green growth and enhance economic stability. Institutional arrangements and economic incentives are the key to sustain the sources of growth in cities. New institutional arrangements will need to be established to guide the development of green growth strategies and to overcome
the institutional inertia and silos that exist around economic and environmental policy making.
Challenge 4: How to use interventions to transform cities to green growth? Cities are the centre of transitioning towards green economy. Green growth is already underway in both European and Chinese cities. We identify available interventions for green growth and examine the effectiveness of those interventions.