Evolutionary Potential In Changing Environments - a quantitative genetic approach – EPICE

One of the greatest challenges faced by mankind over the next decades is understanding and predicting the consequences of global change on the world around us. The increasing human population and the expansion of its activities are causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. Species habitats are being modified at a fast rate, raising an important question: will wild populations adapt to the new conditions? Recent studies report changes in phenology of many species because of climate change. While rapid evolutionary responses to global change are expected, it is still unclear whether the observed changes are evolutionary (i.e. genetic variation) or merely environmental (plastic variation). In this context, reproductive traits are particularly important because they are intimately linked to fitness. However, we still have only a limited understanding of their evolutionary dynamics in natural populations. Our aim is to improve our understanding of those evolutionary dynamics through a comprehensive interspecific quantitative genetic approach taking advantage of the availability of exceptional long term data sets in pedigreed wild bird and mammal populations. We aim to study the various faces of responses to climate change (plasticity, microevolution, evolution of plasticity) by integrating the potential genetic and ecological constraints on those responses, such as genetic correlations or gene flow between populations. To this end, this project gathers 5 researchers bringing not only complementary theoretical and analytical skills but also highly valuable datasets. More specifically, the objectives of this project are to: - Assess the mechanisms behind responses to climate change, disentangling genotypic from environmental responses. Evaluate the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity displayed in reproduction as well as migration behaviour. - Evaluate the impact of environmental heterogeneity on genetic architecture (i.e. traits' genetic variances and covariances). - Understand the rate of change of the genetic correlations between traits: is this rate stabilized by selection? Can genetic correlations influence the direction and pace of responses to selection on the long term? Answering these questions is fundamental to evaluate the ability of quantitative genetics tools to predict evolutionary change over more than one generation. - Find general patterns in the evolution of genetic correlations related to ecology of species to allow more general conclusions of evolutionary responses than a case by case approach. - Test how useful neutral genetic variation is in predicting additive genetic (co)variances and hence species evolutionary potential. - Provide a framework to generalize predicted responses to global change in a wide range of organisms. The originality of this project resides in different levels. First, on a conceptual level, the heterogeneity of the environment (in time and space) is considered as an object of study per se and not treated as a disturbing noise. Second, on a theoretical level, we aim to better understand evolutionary trajectories and mechanisms explaining observed responses to climate change (plasticity vs. microevolution) by incorporating a dimension overlooked so far: environmental heterogeneity in interaction with genetic architecture. Third, we will test the potential of quantitative genetics as a predictive tool in conservation biology. Fourth, on a methodological level, the originality also relies in the comparative approach, thanks to the use of diverse data sets of high quality on birds and mammals. Our research will have an impact well beyond the studied species and will be applicable to most animal populations as human intervention has caused a mosaic of different habitats at different scales. The proposed research program will provide important ecological and evolutionary information based on 1) powerful theoretical background, 2) reliable data gathering and 3) state of the art molecular, quantitative genetics and statistical analyses. Such information will help to adjust the management practices and policies in the perspective of maintaining the genetic and ecological integrities of natural resources. This project aims to validate the value of quantitative genetics as a tool in conservation biology. This is crucial because integrating adaptive responses is fundamental for the success of conservation action. Predicting adaptive responses to climate change will be useful in direct population management, but also in the design of reserves that needs to take the evolutionary dimension into account if they are to be efficient conservation tools on the long term.