Climate Change Impacts on SpecieS

The overarching aim of our research is to understand current and future impacts of climate change on wild species, how these changes in turn affect humans, and ultimately to inform conservation and climate change mitigation strategies such that sound, climate resilient policies can be developed even in the face of uncertain future climate change. 

My group's work with the United Nations IPCC/GIEC produced two major reports: an IPCC-IPBES Joint Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change (2021) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report, WGII on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (2022), for which I was a Coordinating Lead Author, synthesizing global impacts on terrestrial and freshwater systems.  Conclusions were presented at COP27 (Egypt 2022) and provided the foundational scientific basis for negotiations, highlighting scientific evidence that we need strong and rapid global emissions reductions. We were awarded the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity (jointly to IPCC and IPBES) in 2022.

In IPCC, my group was instrumental in pulling together new evidence on the links between climate change, the ecology of pathogens in the wild, and changes in disease risk in humans.  We assessed the role of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) as a win-win approach both to mitigate rising greenhouse gases and to help nature and humans adapt.  We synthesized new evidence and concluded that there is a risk of irreversible, unstoppable climate change because climate-driven changes in ecological processes are causing systems to shift from being carbon sinks/storage to carbon sources.  

My group continues to study impacts of climate change in wild butterflies. We discovered rapid local evolution in Edith's checkerspot butterfly that effectively mitigated local warming trends by shifting the micro-climate experienced by the eggs.  We've developed new modeling approaches to help conservation managers make decisions in the face of rapid climate change and an uncertain future.

We've continued to contribute directly to public awareness by giving public talks, writing easy-to-understand popular articles, and giving media interviews.  We've participated in 4 documentary films: "47°C" won a Jury Prize at the Mimesis Film Festival (USA) and "Evolution Earth" aired on PBS (USA) and Arte (France).