Perspectives on a "cap and share" system to end climate change and extreme poverty – cap_and_share
Perspectives on a cap and share to end climate change and extreme poverty
As early as 1990, economists proposed the establishment of a «cap and share« system: a global carbon market whose revenues would be allocated on an equal per capita basis. Using surveys of 56,000 respondents, it was shown that support for a cap-and-share system is not only very strong in each of the 20 countries covered, but also sincere.
Objectives
The overarching objective of the project is to characterize the political feasibility, economic effects, and geopolitical implications of a cap and share, a global climate policy seeking both climate justice and universal support. Expected results include the magnitude and factors of public support, the gains and losses by income decile for each country, and the likely paths of oil price, carbon price, trade balances, and GDPs. With our results, we will elevate understanding of attitudes towards globally redistributive policies, sharpen economic projections of climate policies, and advance assessment of the power of oil exporters and the cost of securing energy supply during the decarbonization. We will push the research frontier on three fronts by conducting semi-automatic interviews on a representative sample and by developing state-of-the-art models of both the climate-economy and the oil market. The project’s strength and originality lies in fully characterizing a policy with various disciplines and complementary methods.
The hypothesis of this project is that a majority of the population (particularly in high-income countries) would accept a globally redistributive climate policy such as cap and share (involving massive international transfers compared with current transfers, but moderate transfers compared with redistributions occurring at national level). The project is divided into two parts. The first part will test this hypothesis using new opinion surveys of the public and elites as well as semi-structured interviews, in countries with a large carbon footprint per capita. In the light of previous results, we expect this hypothesis to be confirmed. The second part will seek to draw the consequences of this new perspective towards a cap and share, established by an alliance of countries within a “climate coalition”, by carrying out preparatory studies for its establishment. On the one hand, we will simulate the economic effects of a cap and share using an integrated climate-economy-energy model, with different scenarios for participation in the climate coalition. On the other hand, we will study the dynamics linking carbon prices and oil (and gas) prices for different scenarios of geopolitical alliances (climate coalition, cartel of oil-exporting countries).
Coming (not so) soon.
Coming (not so) soon.
Coming (not so) soon.
As early as 1990, economists proposed the establishment of a cap and share system: a global carbon market whose revenues would be allocated on an equal per capita basis. In a working paper, we show, with the help of surveys on 56,000 respondents, that acceptance of a cap and share is not only very strong in each of the 20 countries covered, but that it is also sincere. In accordance with these survey results, the hypothesis of this project is that a majority of the population (particularly in high-income countries) would accept a global redistribution policy such as cap and share.
The project is divided into two parts. The first part will test our hypothesis using new opinion surveys. In the light of previous results, we expect this hypothesis to be confirmed. I will carry out additional surveys and semi-structured interviews to test alternative hypotheses that could temper the declared support by (1) warm glow, (2) other antagonistic concerns, or (3) concrete obstacles to the realization of a cap and share. The second part will seek to draw the consequences of this new perspective towards a cap and share, established by an alliance of countries within a “climate coalition”, by carrying out preparatory studies for its establishment. On the one hand, we will simulate the economic effects of a cap and share using an integrated economic-energy model, with different scenarios for participation in the climate coalition. On the other hand, we will study the dynamics linking carbon prices and oil (and gas) prices for different scenarios of geopolitical alliances (climate coalition, cartel of oil-exporting countries).
Project coordination
Adrien Fabre (Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement)
The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.
Partnership
CIRED Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
Help of the ANR 264,460 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project:
February 2025
- 48 Months
