Explainable Predictive Maintenance – XPM

The XPM project aims to integrate explanations into Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions within the area of Predictive Maintenance (PM). Real-world applications of PM are increasingly complex, with intricate interactions of many components. AI solutions are a very popular technique in this domain, and especially the black-box models based on deep learning approaches are showing very promising results in terms of predictive accuracy and capability of modelling complex systems.

However, the decisions made by these black-box models are often difficult for human experts to understand – and therefore to act upon. The complete repair plan and maintenance actions that must be performed based on the detected symptoms of damage and wear often require complex reasoning and planning processes, involving many actors and balancing different priorities. It is not realistic to expect this complete solution to be created automatically – there is too much context that needs to be taken into account. Therefore, operators, technicians and managers require insights to understand what is happening, why it is happening, and how to react. Today’s mostly black-box AI does not provide these insights, nor does it support experts in making maintenance decisions based on the deviations it detects. The effectiveness of the PM system depends much less on the accuracy of the alarms the AI raises than on the relevancy of the actions operators perform based on these alarms.

In the XPM project, we will develop several different types of explanations (anything from visual analytics through prototypical examples to deductive argumentative systems) and demonstrate their usefulness in four selected case studies: electric vehicles, metro trains, steel plant and wind farms. In each of them, we will demonstrate how the right explanations of decisions made by AI systems lead to better results across several dimensions, including identifying the component or part of the process where the problem has occurred; understanding the severity and future consequences of detected deviations; choosing the optimal repair and maintenance plan from several alternatives created based on different priorities, and understanding the reasons why the problem has occurred in the first place as a way to improve system design for the future.