The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events – ROADMAP

ROADMAP investigates the influence of North Atlantic and North Pacific ocean surface variability on the extratropical atmospheric circulation, with a focus on high-impact weather and climate extremes under present-day and future climate conditions. Specifically, ROADMAP will address:

• impacts of a changing ocean circulation on sea surface temperature (SST)
• future of western boundary currents and their extensions, such as the Gulfstream
• extratropical ocean-atmosphere interactions controlling jet streams, cyclones, blocking and their links to weather and climate extremes
• impacts of tropical SST anomalies (e.g. El Nino) on the extratropical atmospheric circulation
• role of the SST and Arctic sea ice for driving impact-relevant atmospheric extremes such as heat waves including compound weather extremes
• intensity and frequency of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones (Medicanes)
• interactions between oceanic and atmospheric modes of variability

ROADMAP will exploit the wealth of model simulations recently produced in other international (EU and worldwide) research activities. Additionally, ROADMAP will conduct dedicated experiments employing cutting-edge numerical techniques based on data assimilation and interactive ensemble modelling. Analyses will be based on advanced dynamical and statistical methods as well as novel machine learning techniques designed to infer complex, non-linear relationships. ROADMAP applies a multi-model approach, crucial for assessing uncertainties. Results will be disseminated to the scientific, stakeholder and climate service community as well the general public.

The consortium encompasses leading climate research institutions from seven European countries, including universities as well as institutions providing (national) meteorological and climate services. ROADMAP will continue a long-standing history of successful international collaboration between its partners.