International terrorism is often nourished by civil conflicts. This link is one of the main motives for foreign military interventions in distant conflict zones, such as Mali or Afghanistan. The effectiveness of these interventions relies crucially on the cooperation of different actors with diverging interests and incentives. These actors include the civilian population, local government officials, as well as foreign and domestic security forces. My research uses new, granular data on violence in Afghanistan study the cooperation between these actors in conflict zones. As an economist specialized in the study civil conflict and security forces, I will use micro-econometric methods to study these interactions.
My proposal consists of three sub-projects. Each sub-project aims to provide quantitative evidence on how economic interventions and organizational changes can promote effective cooperation in conflict zones. Each sub-project will highlight a different set of actors in the conflict. In a first sub-project, I will study how economic shocks affect civilian cooperation with security forces. Second, I will examine how coordination problems between NATO allies affect security provision. In the third sub-project, I will study the interaction between foreign and domestic security forces, and in particular how Afghanistan’s security transition affected violence outcomes. In addition, I will develop two extension projects. The first one will analyze how Afghanistan’s porous border affects the Taliban’s strategy towards the civilian population. The second one will study the relationship between the identity of Afghan government officials and the population’s attitudes towards the conflict.
The main contribution of this research proposal is to study the cooperation between actors in conflict zones using recently declassified data sources. The granularity of these new data sources allows for the quantification of empirical relationships and formal tests of research hypotheses. While there is an emerging literature in economics and political science using similar statistical tools, it has paid little attention to the interactions that I propose to study. By shedding new light on how different actors in conflict zones cooperate, my research agenda aims to contribute to better decision-making in these challenging environments.
Monsieur Oliver Vanden Eynde (ECOLE D´ ECONOMIE DE PARIS)
The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.
ECOLE D´ ECONOMIE DE PARIS
Help of the ANR 147,781 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project: September 2018 - 48 Months