Modelling past and future land cover changes in the Pyrenees – MODE RESPYR

The MODE-RESPYR project (Modeling Past and future land cover changes in the Pyrenees) aims to reconstruct ancient and contemporary past land cover changes and project future possible changes at various spatial and temporal scales in the Pyrenees. Indeed, land cover changes have significant impacts on local and regional climate. Understanding the processes involved is essential to reduce uncertainties related to the impacts of current changes and to better anticipate future changes. Under climate change assumptions, mountain areas and especially the Pyrenees are particularly attractive environments and show high stakes: they offer an easiest analysis of society-environment interactions, they face the disappearance of glaciers and snow cover reduction, etc.
The methodology used is based on two phases: retrospective modeling and prospective modeling. The first step combines approaches at different spatial and temporal scales to conceptually model the changes of land cover and their explanatory factors. The second step, based on previous results, aims to build spatially explicit scenarios at local and regional scales. They respond to specific environmental stakes and/or methodological issues to each study site. This project is divided into six tasks: a task animation (task 0), four tasks (tasks 1 to 4) for the retrospective phase and a task (Task 5) for the prospective phase. Tasks 1 through 3 will be conducted in parallel during the first two years of the project. Task 4 summarizes the main results found in previous tasks. Task 5, conducted in an interdisciplinary way, takes place during the last 20 months of the project.
This ambitious and innovative project is part of the scientific issues identified by the Institutes of Human and Social Sciences (InSHS) and of Ecology and Environment (InEE) of the CNRS. To carry it out an interdisciplinary science "team" is defined regrouping members of four research laboratories of Toulouse: GEODE UMR 5602, CESBIO UMR 5126, Dynafor UMR 1201 and LPT UMR 5152. Each listed task will be leaded by a young researcher and also includes senior scientists. Supported by a steering committee, task 0 will be under the responsibility of the project leader, Thomas Houet young research fellow at CNRS affected in GEODE laboratory since 2007. This project brings together common and historical actions and scientific goals between GEODE, CESBIO and Dynafor labs and with whom he already has isolated collaborations. This project aims to consolidate, or even more to structure, a regional "research group" nationally and internationally recognized in an emerging scientific field: spatially explicit prospective modeling. It goes beyond the specific objectives of the GEODE lab consisting in coupling paleo-environmental and modeling approaches. This project questions and issues in science more general such as: "What is the role of the spatial dimension in the prospective research? What spatial and temporal resolutions for which projections? "
Finally, the human dimension (16 persons involved, 4 different research labs) and financial dimension (about 275k € requested) are quite expensive but necessary to achieve these ambitious scientific and methodological objectives. Its interdisciplinary approach and the involvement of institutional partners and local decision makers are two of his main interests.