TRaIt-Based MoDEls To Predict MariNe EcosysTem Dynamics – TRIDENT

TRIDENT aims at developing an original trait-based modelling framework to project the effects of global anthropogenic changes on marine biodiversity and seafloor ecosystem dynamics. Model development will be stepwise: (1) we will first infer the topology of community interactions, as well as set of traits and functional groups that capture overall ecosystem structure and dynamics; and (2) we will develop a trait-based simulation model, which will be trained and tested against several regional and worldwide databases of coastal seafloor ecosystems. A set of trait-based rules will be identified and modelled to project changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics under alternative climate change and ocean use scenarios. Simulation of emergent ecological assemblages and subsequent rewiring of interaction networks will provide insights on critical thresholds in ecosystem dynamics and risks of shifts to undesirable ecosystem states under future scenarios.