Approche systémique pour les Plans Climat Energie Territoriaux : mise en perspective 2050 – ASPECT-2050

The central assumption of the project is that a better understanding of urban interactions will enable multi-level and multi-sectoral policies, with significant impacts on urban dynamics and therefore in the medium or long term on GHG emissions.
To explore this assumption, the project proposes a conceptual scheme. This is based on an international review of literature and on analysis made in 3 territories in France (Lyon, Dunkerque and Mulhouse).
A numerical model is being developed, which allows the simulation of case studies and impact of potential policies in the period to 2050. The numerical model been built gives a first framework to test the possible coupling between a multi-sectors model on energy consumption (implemented with a system dynamics approach), a transport model and a land-use model.
Finally, all methodological advances and analysis will be presented in a guide dedicated to support decision making for communities and policy makers.

The state of the art and the territorial analysis led to identify four main interactions strongly impacting energy consumption and GHG emissions on an urban scale :
• interactions between urban form and mobility,
• interactions between accessibility and urban sprawl,
• interactions between land markets and urban sprawl,
• interactions between urban form and local management of energy.

These analyses indicate a stronger link between housing policies and urban planning on the one hand, and transportation policies on the other hand, which could contribute to reduce GHG emissions.
On this basis, the conceptual sketch proposes a hierarchy of indicators and actions, ranging from elementary actions to sectoral policies. From this point of view, the proposed model is intended to be flexible in the sense, that it has to gradually integrate the knowledge improvement.

Jean Laterrasse, Seghir Zerguini, Florent Le Néchet, Simon
Aulagnier, Monika Heider, Markus Peter, 2012. Modèle de Prévision
de l’Occupation du Sol pour la Prospective Energétique et les émissions
des GES à l’échelle de l’agglomération. Article pour le « 11ème
séminaire francophone est-ouest de socio-économie des
transports ». Karlsruhe, 23-27 mai 2012.

Jean Laterrasse, Seghir Zerguini, 2011. Proposition d’une
méthodologie articulant évaluation des performances des services urbains
et suivi des Plans Climats-Energies Territoriaux, Ouvrage ASTEE
« Améliorer la performance des services publics d'eau et
d'assainissement », 6ème forum mondial de l’eau en mars 2012 à
Référence du formulaire : ANR-FORM-090601-02-02 9/11
Marseille, pp. 169-170
www.astee.org/publications/bibliographie/collection/accueil.ph
p?niv=1.5.6

Aulagnier S., Laigle L., Nahon R., 2011. Systemic Approach for
Climate Energy Plans at the Territory scale, Colloque ECEEE 6-
11/2011 proceedings.eceee.org/visabstrakt.php
294-11 8 p.

Communication à l’ATEC 2-3 février 2011 – EGIS
Présentation du projet et des possibilités apportées
grâce à l’approche systémique – Résultats attendus.

In the framework of the « Grenelle de l'Environnement », the Programmes for the Climate and the Energy at the Territory scale (PCET) should be a way to introduce the issues of energy savings and climate change to those of urban systems, buildings and transportation. The objective of the project is to propose a method that helps planning the PCETs through a systemic approach focused on the ?core' of territory policies composed of the ?transportation/buildings/land occupancy? system that amounts to near 60% of the emission of greenhouse effect gases and that is the main leverage for action at the local authority scale. Although the project focuses on this ?core' system, other parameters (the role of Information and Communication Technologies, feeding, etc) and other approaches (ecosystemic approach, life cycle assessment, etc) are considered in the project and are evaluated in the frame of the state of the art, and are implemented when possible. The method both includes a top-down approach based on the analysis of scientific works and of available expertises, and a bottom-up approach based on the territory evaluation of 3 local authorities at the city area scale. First, it consists in developing a conceptual model of the urban system defined by its sectorial, spatial, and governing interactions. Secondly, this model allows for proposing a consistent warning data set for short and mid-term monitoring of the PCETs, as well as building a simulation scenario (with System Dynamics / Agent Based models) that forecasts long term effects (until 2050 for this project) of a wide range of possible urban policies. Finally, the method is a decision making tool for local authorities about planning actions in respect with the importance of predictable impacts and the assigned objectives (e.g. ?factor 4? objectives). The project is supported by a consortium composed of 3 research laboratories (CSTB, EIFER, LVMT) and 5 engineering companies (BURGEAP, EGIS MOBILITE, ICE, ISEE, Tracés Urbains).