JCLI - JCLI

PAlaeo-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics – PACMEDY

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Résumé de soumission

Monsoon systems influence the water supply and livelihoods of over half of the world. Observations are too short to provide estimates of monsoon
variability on the multi-year timescale relevant to the future or to identify the causes of change on this timescale. The credibility of future projections of
monsoon behavior is limited by the large spread in the simulated magnitude of precipitation changes. Past climates provide an opportunity to
overcome these problems. This project will use annually-resolved palaeoenvironmental records of climate variability over the past 6000 years from
corals, molluscs, speleothems and tree rings, together with global climate-model simulations and high-resolution simulations of the Indian, African,
East Asia and South American monsoons, to provide a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and interannual to multidecadal variability (IM).
We will use the millennium before the pre-industrial era (850-1850 CE) as the reference climate and compare this with simulations of the mid-
Holocene (6000 years ago) and transient simulations from 6000 year ago to ca 850 CE. We will provide a quantitative and comprehensive
assessment of what aspects of monsoon variability are adequately represented by current models, using environmental modelling to simulate the
observations. By linking modelling of past climates and future projections, we will assess the credibility of these projections and the likelihood of
extreme events at decadal time scales. The project is organized around four themes: (1) the impact of external forcing and extratropical climates on
intertropical convergence and the hydrological cycle in the tropics; (2) characterization of IM variability to determine the extent to which the
stochastic component is modulated by external forcing or changes in mean climate; (3) the influence of local (vegetation, dust) and remote factors on
the duration, intensity and pattern of the Indian, African and South American monsoons; and (4) the identification of paleo-constraints that can be
used to assess the reliability of future monsoon evolution.

Coordinateur du projet

Madame Pascale BRACONNOT (Laboratoire des Scences du Climat et de l'Environnement)

L'auteur de ce résumé est le coordinateur du projet, qui est responsable du contenu de ce résumé. L'ANR décline par conséquent toute responsabilité quant à son contenu.

Partenaire

CNRS DR IDF SECTEUR PARIS B CNRS DR IDF SECTEUR PARIS B
IAP Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences
AWI Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
University College London
University of Edinburgh
HZG Helmoltz-Zentrum Geesthacht
LPGNantes - Université de Nantes Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique de Nantes - Université de Nantes
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Stockholm University
EPOC Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux
LOCEAN Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Analyses Numériques-IPSL/Pierre et Marie Curie University
ISEM Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
CNRS DR12 - CEREGE Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Délégation Provence et Corse - Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement en Géoscience de l'Environnement
IITM Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
CNRS-LSCE Laboratoire des Scences du Climat et de l'Environnement
University of Reading

Aide de l'ANR 531 552 euros
Début et durée du projet scientifique : mai 2016 - 36 Mois

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