Tourism in Hauts-de-France and Covid-19 Epidemic Risk – THREpiCo

Tourism is one of the most impacted sectors from the Covid-19 pandemic. The extent of the impact is expected to be particularly severe for tourist destinations where the virus is actively circulating and tourism plays an important role in the economy. With a rich endowment of tourism potential, the Hauts-de-France (HdF) was part of the French regions classified as Covid-19 "red zone" the day after deconfinement (May 11th). The research project THREpiCo addresses the issue of the consequences of this pandemic on both tourism demand and supply. In terms of tourism demand, the project aims at understanding individuals’ perceptions of the region with regard to the Covid-19 epidemic risk and analysing the role of their perceptions in their visit behaviour and revisit intentions. Particular attention will be paid to the individuals’ trust in regional policy-makers and confidence in Covid-19 risk mitigation measures. The changes in demand for trips and individual welfare due to the pandemic will also be explored. In terms of tourism supply, a number of Covid-19 health and safety protocols, combined with related communication strategies, have been implemented, particularly in the commercial accommodation sector, in an effort to restore visitors’ confidence and stimulate demand. Another objective of this project is to investigate the attractiveness of these tools among visitors by estimating the extra amount of money that they would be willing to pay for one night in a hotel establishment. Finally, additional changes are expected to be made in the regional tourism industry in the medium term to strengthen the resilience of the sector. With this in mind, qualitative survey interviews of tourism stakeholders will be carried out with the objective of co-constructing a restructuring plan for the tourism supply organised into different actions (or scenarios). An ex-ante economic valuation of these scenarios will be conducted to support the decision-making process. This research project will be led by a multidisciplinary research team, whose expertise covers all aspects related to the impact analysis of a pandemic on tourism. The team will rely on close collaboration with the diverse tourism-based organisations within the HdF and the original combination of several non-market economic valuation methods, quantitative and qualitative surveys, coupled with the use of secondary data about tourist trips during the last ten years, to provide a broad picture of the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourism activity in the HdF. The expected results are empirical, methodological and operational.