We propose to develop a pilot prototype of earthquake forecast model in Ecuador and northern Peru where major earthquakes are likely to occur in future. The novelty of the model is that it will integrate all existing and forthcoming knowledge on faults, including their seismic potential quantitatively assessed from geodetic, seismological and geological approaches. The primary deliverable is the anticipation of the location, size, frequency of future potential destructive events, and then translated into probability of exceeding of a certain ground-motion level. Our project includes a focus on seismic hazards and vulnerability in Quito, and the development of a near real-time seismic response platform. The model will greatly improve the seismic hazard assessment not only in Peru and Ecuador but also in areas with similar geodynamics settings. Our project builds upon a long-established collaboration with Ecuador-Peru partners, an already extensive database, a privileged access to multiple new data and already operating continuous sensor dense networks, and finally a solid interdisciplinary expertise.
Finally, local stakeholders and decision makers will be involved in the project. We detailed an approach that will enabled the appropriation and transfer of scientific results to the civil society, with the ultimate goal of a scientists-stake holders joint initiatives to improve public policies and practices related to the seismic risk.
Monsieur Philippe Charvis (Institut de Recherche pour le développement - UMR Géoazur)
The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.
INOCAR Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada
IGP Instituto Geofísico del Perú
EDYTEM Environnements, DYnamiques et TErritoires de la Montagne
IRD Institut de Recherche pour le développement - UMR Géoazur
Escuela Politecnica Superior del Litoral La Facultad de Ingeniería en Ciencias de la Tierra, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral
IG-EPN Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica
CEREMA Centre d'études et d'expertise sur les risques, l'environnement, la mobilité et l'aménagement - Laboratoire de Nice
IRD - ISTerre Institut de Recherche pour le développement - Institut des Sciences de la Terre
Help of the ANR 599,736 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project: December 2015 - 48 Months