Programme Prioritaire de Recherche Make Our Planet Great Again

Risks and Uncertainties under Climate Change

RISCCi

Mots-clés : Climate Change; Uncertainty; Perturbed Physics; Scenarios; Risk;

Résumé

In 2019, the RISCII project continued to produce foundational research for understanding uncertainties in Earth System Model projections of climate change and associated risk factors.  The PI, Benjamin Sanderson published 6 articles and began the supervision of a PhD student, Saloua Peatier at CERFACS.  

During this period, collaborations both at the national and international level were developed. The PI has made connections at CNRM at the meteopole in order to complete the first stages of the perturbed physics ensemble which forms the basis of RISCCI, and the first publication using this data is in preparation.  The PI also serves as an affiliate scientist for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder CO, as part of an international collaboration to develop a common protocol for perturbed parameter experiments.

The PI is convening a workshop currently scheduled for January 2021 (COVID-19 permitting) on risk and uncertainty in ESM modeling, together with a wide consortium of scientists from France and the UK.  The workshop will be hosted at the MeteoFrance compus in Toulouse, and members of both CNRM and IPSL are present on the organizing committee.

The PI has also been involved in a number of European funding efforts to broaden the scope of the project.  In the ESM2025 proposal consortium, the PI is leading one of 3 core themes which comprise a multi-million Euro effort to improve the representation of Earth System modeling uncertainties in Integrated Assessment and decision making.  In the PROVIDE proposal consortium, the PI is responsible for coordinating ensemble ESM simulations within an effort to represent uncertainties in climate overshoot scenarios.  The PI is also part of a VESRI consortium proposing the use of machine learning in model acceleration for the Schmidt foundation.

The PI has served as a contributing author for chapter 8 and review editor for chapters 7 and 8 of the 6th Assessment of the IPCC.

L'auteur de ce résumé est le coordinateur du projet, qui est responsable du contenu de ce résumé. L'ANR décline par conséquent toute responsabilité quant à son contenu.

Informations générales

Acronyme projet : RISCCi
Référence projet : 17-MPGA-0016
Région du projet : Occitanie
Discipline : 3 - STUE
Aide PIA : 499 716 €
Début projet : août 2018
Fin projet : août 2023

Coordinateur du projet : Benjamin Mark SANDERSON
Email : sanderson@cerfacs.fr

Consortium du projet

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