Maritime Globalization, Network Externalities, and Transport Impacts on CitieS – MAGNETICS

Cartography of the global maritime network with QGIS and analysis of the n-layer network combining railways, ports, and cities using classic accessibility/centrality indicators (degree, betweenness, closeness) and global-level topological indices.

Statistical analysis (descriptive) of port-city correlation (demographic size vs. vessel traffic) over time. Average port centrality by city size classes (percentiles).

Econometric analysis of the influence of a) port activities and b) ports' environmental measures on pollution levels and health levels in port cities

- in the OCDE, port regions emit more greenhouse gases (GHG) than non-port regions

- two main types of port regions can be identified: metropolitan (population density, GDP, vessel turnaround time, GHG, PM2.5) and industrial (solid and liquid bulks, mortality)

- during the period 1880-1925 in the UK, port-rail intermodalism is strongly correlated with cities' demographic size and growth rates

- the diffusion of containerization for the period 1950-1990 globally shows two contrary trends: a) port cities grow thanks to maritime trade (market access effect through the port) ; but b) port development is constrained by lack of space within cities, motivating port functions to migrate towards non-urban sites without ulterior urban growth

- between 1880 and 2020, the topological structure of the global maritime network evolved towards an optimal configuration, but has become more vulnerable given the concentration of traffic at fewer and larger hubs

Usage of untapped, global urban and shipping data over the last 140 years to analyze port-city interdependencies, every 5 years.

Future prospect is to expand the extraction of shipping data on a yearly basis, to obtain 16 publications on daily vessel movements a year since 1880 (more representative). Our current research is based on a very light extraction of shipping data (only one Lloyd's List publication every 5 years).

The MAGNETICS project aims to further understand the circular causality between local socio-economic development and transport activities, more precisely in the case of the port and maritime sector. While empirical studies on the economic impact and connectivity of ports are numerous, they remain dispersed and divergent by their methods, sources, and results. An untapped database (Lloyd's) on the merchant marine fleet navigation from 1880 to nowadays will allow us to construct the global maritime network. Extracting road and railway segments from old and recent maps will serve to build the land-based network. Both networks will be combined and fed by the harmonisation of four urban databases on cities' population since 1880. Using graph theory, we will search for the mechanisms linking these three components based on the theoretical model of Fujita and Mori (1996), not yet applied, on port-related growth in an urban system.
In the more recent period (since the 2000s), we will use the previous results to work on more detailed regional indicators about employment, firms, and regional productivity. Complementary methods such as spatial analysis, spatial econometrics, and autocorrelation shall evaluate the intensity and directionality of port-region influences in various contexts. Such analyses will include original variables such as the centrality of cities and regions - port and non-port - in the global sea-land network.
Finally, the analysis of socio-economic impacts will be complemented by the one of environmental and health impacts. The quantitative part will analyse the feasibility of a modal shift from road to short sea shipping, to attenuate congestion in large hubs, reduce the carbon footprint of landside detours, and favor the development of peripheral port cities. It will also propose a new analysis of port traffic impacts on the urban environment and the health of local populations, based on indicators such as congestion, air quality, and demography (e.g. mortality). An intensive fielwork will complement the quantitative analyses by in-depth case studies of selected French and Italian port cities.