COVID-19 - Coronavirus disease 2019

Mathematical and computational modeling integrating real-time mobile phone data to evaluate interventions against COVID-19 pandemic in France – EVALCOVID-19

Submission summary

Not even 3 months after the first news of a pneumonic infection spreading from a food market in Wuhan, China, COVID-19 pandemic has moved epicenter from China to Europe. European countries, including France, are now facing a dramatic surge of cases that is already reaching hospital capacity in some areas. All European countries have implemented social distancing measures, with most of them putting in place a strict lockdown on the population, inspired by the Chinese example. The effectiveness of the lockdown is not yet visible and currently debated, due to differences between China and Europe in implementation, cultural adoption, epidemic phase. Specifically, the response of the population to the applied intervention is key to its success. EVALCOVID-19 project proposes to use real-time data on mobility of individuals gathered from mobile phones (GDPR-compliant aggregated information) to inform a spatially-explicit age-specific metapopulation epidemic model for France. While waiting for the vaccine, the project will be able to: (i) monitor changes in mobility behavior (e.g. escape from Paris, compliance to restrictions); (ii) evaluate the impact of applied interventions; (iii) explore scenarios to inform on lifting interventions (when, local/nationwide) and adoption of other measures at community level; (iv) evaluate healthcare needs in these situations. The results will be communicated to health authorities to aid informing political decisions. The PI has been heavily involved in the response to COVID-19 pandemic since January and has a weekly meeting with Santé publique France about modeling progress and to inform models with public health needs. Santé publique France supports the project.

Project coordination

Vittoria COLIZZA (Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de santé publique)

The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.

Partner

Orange ORANGE (Orange Labs -Gardens)
INSERM Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de santé publique

Help of the ANR 134,048 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project: - 18 Months

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