Restriction policies and conflict worldwide during the Covid-19 pandemic – covidco

The first aim of the project is to provide real-time evidence of the effect of restriction policies to flatten the epidemic curve (i.e., restrictions to economic activity and mobility) on the intensity of conflict worldwide. Thanks to daily information on conflict events with specific details on the nature and the actors on both sides of the conflicts, I will be able to release frequent estimated magnitude of the impact of restriction policies. In addition, I will evaluate how the effects are evolving with the duration of the restrictions to limit the spread of coronavirus, but also during and after the loosening of restrictions and the restart of the economic activity. The second aim of the project is to estimate how the implementation and progressive lifting of restriction policies may differentially affect conflict across regions within a country. The different sources of regional heterogeneity that I will investigate are i) income; ii) trade openness; iii) natural resource production; and iv) religion. Highlight sources of regional heterogeneities within a country, may help policymakers to target regions that are more likely to face increasing violence.