Globally Observed Teleconnections and their role and representation in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models – GOTHAM

Submission summary

GOTHAM represents an ambitious research programme to gain robust, relevant and transferable knowledge of past and present day patterns and
trends of regional climate extremes and variability of vulnerable areas identified by the IPCC, including the tropics and high-latitudes. It will achieve
this by identifying the influence of remote drivers, or teleconnections, on regional climate variability, and assessing their relative impact. It will also
assess the potential for improved season-decadal prediction using a combination of contemporary climate models, citizen-science computing and
advanced statistical analysis tools. GOTHAM has the direct backing of many international weather and climate research centres, and will lead to the
improved development of seasonal-decadal forecasts at the regional level. The improved knowledge and understanding of dynamical factors that
influence regional weather and climate in the tropics/sub-tropics, and polar regions, will directly feed through to weather and climate forecast services
to assist in their decisions on which priority areas of their model development to target in order to improve forecast skills. For example, GOTHAM
will advise whether a model is missing or misrepresenting important global teleconnections that significantly influence regional climate in identified
vulnerable regions. These impacts will be achieved through regular meetings with GOTHAM investigator groups and their extended collaborative
networks, and extensive involvement in wider science and science-policy programmes with co-aligned strategies, such as the core projects within the
WCRP. Improved seasonal to decadal scale forecasts will improve predictions of extreme events and natural hazard risks such as flooding that can
have devastating impact on society. There is real potential for project results feeding through to impacts-related research, such as those involved in
hydrological and flood forecast modeling, and these will be explored in liaison with identified partners in Asia and Europe.

Project coordination

Francois LOTT (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace)

The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.


IITM Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
IPSL Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
IAP Institute of Atmospheric Physics
PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
IPSL Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
IITM Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
University of Oxford and National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Help of the ANR 466,000 euros
Beginning and duration of the scientific project: May 2016 - 48 Months

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