VD - Villes Durables 

Modélisation Urbaine et Stratégies d'adaptation au Changement climatique pour Anticiper la Demande et la production Energétique – MUSCADE




The city is a complex system particularly concerned by climate change: its buildings consume energy and emit greenhouse gases; its local climate is enhanced by the formation of urban heat islands, uses of air conditioning or heating of its inhabitants are hardly predictable, and its structural changes are subject to strong inertia that require consider, as with climate change, across the century<br />In that context, what measures will have a significant effect on the urban climate and energy consumption of a city: Applying the French legislation « Grenelle of Environment » on buildings and energy? Local energy production? Energy uses? Green roofs? Urban shape? Ground greening? Technological advances?<br />MUSCADE project studies the interactions between these processes and suggests adaptation strategies that put in perspective the energy consumption of the city and its energy production capacity. The project aims to provide some assessment to urban policy makers who shall build the sustainable city of the future.<br />

To represent the city, its evolution and processes related to energy, a numerical model was developed from several models:
Nedum, the model of urban expansion of CIRED, (Gusdorf, Hallegatte, 2007) reproduces the socio-economic mechanisms that drive the dynamics of the urban system. It is used to represent the city evolution of the 1900s until the end of the XXI century. Morphology at the neighborhood level is achieved by the block generation model of LRA.
The Town Energy Balance model CNRM-GAME (TEB, Masson 2000) simulates the urban microclimate from physical processes related to urban geometry, and the building energy budget processing (Bueno et al, 2012) allows to represent the energy consumption of the city.
An analysis by LIENSs of past expansion of the Paris area and a parametric study of the building's energy by CSTB helped validate the models.
Finally, to represent the future city, projections have been developped by combining various assumptions of climate, macroeconomics (energy prices, economical growth, demographics), urban shape changes (city size, compacity), buildings technologies (materials, regulations) and decentralized energy production (technologies, choice of location).

The developed model allows to assess the urban climate and energy efficiency to answer questions from architects (what type of building is best suited to the future climate?) city planners (what block morphology is best suited to energy performance?) and local communities (what is the impact of urban shape on the local climate? on rents?).

It is therefore possible to compare different adaptation strategies in the Paris region to climate change.
The parameters describing the buildings and all projections throughout the century are also databases that are transposable to other cities.

Scientific production by discipline represents a total of 18 conferences and 11 papers, and focuses on the building's energy within the urban climate model, different types of urban expansion (Nedum), analysis of urban shapes, analysis of links between block morphology and energy production, and climate forcings.
Integrated simulation «town-energy-climate« has already been the subject of 4 scientific or popular conferences, and an interdisciplinary production is expected on the assessment of adaptation strategies for the city to climate change.

MUSCADE project will focus on three items involved into city sustainable development : energy, city structure, and climate change. These items are closely linked to each others, at both global and local scales : energy is a major source of green gazes anthropogenic emissions, that cause global climate warming ; and this global warming is reinforced at local scale by urban heat island creation, due to city morphology and expansion. Given world Kyoto protocol, EU's climate change package, and French ?Grenelle de l'environnement', urban planners are faced to concretes questions : what will be the microclimate in a growing city ? What will be the energy demand to ensure resident thermal comfort ? What will be CO2 emissions ? How to define renewable energies decentralized production patterns' How to adapt the urban structure to climate change' This project aims to study Paris urban area, and consider the XXIst century time scale, taking into account urban structure modification inertia and climate change timescale. A numerical modelling framework will be used to study key urban processes and their interactions, at building scale, block scale, and city scale. Models will be driven by coupled scenarios including climate change, socio-economic, land-use, building materials as well as local and renewable energies potential. NEDUM model, from CIRED, will simulate urban expansion for an ideal and simplified city. As the model is driven by socioeconomic mechanisms, still valid on the very long term, NEDUM is well suitable for 2100 projections ? whereas other detailed models, like TRANUS, apply for short or medium term projections. Within MUSCADE project, a 2D version will be developed to include spatial density of activities and then more closely represent a real city. ESO will perform an analysis of Paris's past expansion in order to validate the 2D model. A zonal model will be used for parametric building energy simulation. Integrated into SALOME framework by CSTB, this model, including thermal gains, losses and exchanges, will allow to study various buildings configurations. At the block level, SIG MORPHOLOGIC modelling framework from LRA-GRECAU will simulate block's morphology impact on energy parameters as well as interactions between local energy production and microclimate parameters. TEB model will then be improved with data from building and sector studies. TEB is the GAME urban climate and energy numerical model, and will be used as a framework to integrate all functions developed within this project; it will provide overall answers to urban energy and climate change issues addressed within the MUSCADE project. Major TEB improvements will apply to glazing, green roofs , roads direction, and coupling between microclimate and local energy production. From GIEC climate models, we will develop an innovative method to build urban heat island local structure, in interaction with TEB. The developed framework will then perform simulations from today to 2100. For each scenario, including projections of Paris' area expansion, we expect results on buildings global energy demand, potential local energy production, urban microclimate including impacts for resident discomfort, and CO2 emissions. Socioeconomic terms will also be simulated (housing access, transportation cost and duration, productive capital), in order to identify sustainable adaptation strategies for cities to climate change. This study mainly considers energy related to buildings, representing 44% of total final energy demand, but will also take into account some others parameters, as energy and emissions due to transportation, to state the domain of validity of simulation results. This project is intended to open new interdisciplinary research areas on sustainable cities and to increase urban planners awareness on energy issues within the city, given the climate change. By identifying leverages, the framework could also help future decisions concerning buildings, local energy production, and urban regulations.

Project coordination

The author of this summary is the project coordinator, who is responsible for the content of this summary. The ANR declines any responsibility as for its contents.


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Beginning and duration of the scientific project: - 0 Months

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